if you have a decent overflow the siphon will not break. if its designed and built right it wont. even if its not a good one it shouldn't break the siphon. here's what can happen:
1) pump in sump stops working: water stops going into the tank. water continues to flow out of the tank via the overflow and into the sump. eventuall one of the following will happen:
a) sump overflows onto floor (
b) water level in tank drops below the inner box of the overflow. water flowing out of tank stops. siphon holds
2) siphon breaks (b/c a bad product or you manually break it i.e - by pulling the u-tube out or something). if the sihpon breaks, water will stop flowing out of the tank and tank will overflow. this is the most unlikely case.
the amount of water passed through your overflow into your sump is determined by many things. here are the main ones:
1) surface area of your tank (the greater the higher the gph, maybe? not sur eon this one)
2) the diamater of the tube from your overflow into your sump (the larger the diameter, the more gph it can handle)
3) this is the big one - the difference between the water level in your tank and the water level in the outer box of the sump. this ultimately determins the GPH.
For example, if the water level in your tank drops (i.e - pump in your sump isnt powerful enough to keep up with overflow rate, then the water level in your tank will drop).
When the water level drops, the difference (#3 above) between that level and the water level in your outer box becomes less, and hence, the GPH out of the box becomes less.
This then allows your pump in the sump to "catch" up and eventually balance out.
LET ME KNOW IF I JUST MADE ANY OUNCE OF SENSE AT ALL!!!