In your climate, it should - but barely. It won't leave you any room to grow. The Artica chillers are very nice, I have a 1/5 Artica myself. When I bought my 1/2hp for a larger tank, I cheaped out and now wished I had bought an Aqua Logic.
Honestly though... for your size tank, a 1/4 would probably be the best fit, 1/3 if there is any chance you'll be upgrading tanks. Chillers CAN be oversized unlike some other things, so don't go nuts.