With a larger return then overflow you run the risk of overflowing your, um, overflow. With a smaller return then overflow then your sump won't hold any more water then it would during a power outage(which is an estimated 0 GPH returned from the sump
), which should be low enough to not flood anyway. Suffice to say, you're tank can't put any more water into the overflow then is being returned to it from the sump. This is how its been explained to me by several reliable sources anyway
Oh ya, since you're pumping up, the return won't be pumping what its rated for, this is true. You're main concern is probably to make sure your displacing at least 10x tank capacity every hour if doing a reef while not pumping so much as to flood your display and/or to minimize the amount displacement in the event of a power outage. If your pump is too powerful I believe you can also throttle it with a valve on the return.
I should asterisk this though as its all secondhand knowledge I've picked up while I've been planning out my own 125 and one of the real experts here can probably confirm/deny it.
Also, if you're interested I have 6 links with a lot of good information that I saved while researching so just PM me and I'll send them to you.