I think I found the study Stanalee was referring to, here is an excerpt that might answer your question Doc.
Of course, light intensity is only part of the story. I had no way of accurately assessing the changes, if any, in the bulbs’ spectral shift. The light spectrum, however, has been found to be far less important to corals' growth than total PAR levels.20 Changes in spectrum definitely affect the aquarium inhabitants' apparent color, though, and conceivably have a longer term effect on the corals' pigmentation. These effects are somewhat subjective, though. It may be that you would want to change the bulbs before their light output requires it simply because you don’t like how they appear. So far, though, in my tank I have not seen a noticeable change in the bulbs’ color, nor has the corals’ apparent coloration deteriorated.
This study isn't a very complete since it only covered DE bulbs and only one manufacturer, but regardless according to this study the PAR drops significantly over the first few months and then levels off and after one year the bulb still retains 75% of its initial PAR and at the end of two years still retains 63% of its initial PAR value so there is only a 10% reduction over the second year compared to the end of the first year.
Here is a link to the article if anyone cares to read it:
Light Output of the Phoenix 14,000K DE MH Bulb Over Time