As an electronics hobbyist as well as aquariums, I've been watching LED prices over the years... right now, they are TUMBLING while at the same time the technology is getting dramatically better.
We're not going to see any advances that are being driven by the aquarium industry... there is not much of a demand to make the actual LED manufacturers do anything differently.
Instead, look at the market for standard lighting (rooms and such). It's the price and performance of LEDs that will drive the aquarium industry, but those prices will come from the standard lighting industry. What you'll notice over the next few years is that the sc_rew in CFLs are merely a transitional technology... between the now obsolete and to-mature true leaps forward in technology - incandescent and LED . Just a few years ago you could not get LEDs 1/5 as powerful as you can now, and even those were many times the cost. White LEDS were not even around.
Moore's law will apply to some extent to LEDs. In two years, LEDs will be twice as bright and half the price... then in 4... 6...
So IMO, LED will definitely be the next big thing, wiht the technology moving forward as green alternatives to incandescent and CFL. It will kill T5s before the technology even matures due to it's return on investment in energy savings. Halide will be the competing technology, becuase of the shimmer effect and punchthrough intensity. I estimate 3-5 years.