Originally Posted by
stdreb27
http:///forum/post/3235794
Well, that isn't very accurate, but it had very little to do with them issuing Real (they went through about 7 different currency launches, for lack of a better word) other than them saying this is a new starting point. But them not being rediculously expansionary in their monitary policy. Heck they were really worried about dollarization (pride will get you to do stupid stuff) so they'd issue indexed notes that you could hold their currency in. So you could go in and buy these indexed notes, in the morning for 100 reals, then turn around whenever you needed reals for something go back and get what that 100 reals were plus inflation. (I guess they had a money printing machine in back), because at several points they were experiencing 1000%+ annual inflation... They were doing other stuff like price controls, and all sorts of other government controls to control costs. And well that just fueled it...
The reality is they just reissued their Real again, significantly reduced alot of the artificial influences on pricing, stopped issuing those indexed notes, just kind of left it alone. And over the next few years they went from 1200%+ inflation down to the low teens and eventually below that.
It is really a GREAT case study in support of the Friedman model.
It does help that they had the resources (in an economic way so land and labor although in this case capital came internationally for the most part) to develope industry. So once they had a responsible system in place monitarily industry moved in and that helped with the civil turmoil that came with needing wheelbarrows of money for a loaf of bread. Then they found craploads of oil.
I still don't get why this number gets people in such a tizzy. What difference does it make if a Euro is valued 1.3 to 1. It is still just a number. (remember your 2+2 means can mean different things argument) apply that here.
People like to say they're money is worth more for some reason. And they see 1 whether it be a peso or a dollar and they just instictively try to equate that somehow, but you can't. I also think that people equate a weaker currency with a weaker economy. Like Mexico because their exchange rate is somewhere around 11 pesos per dollar. But Lets take the Japanese yen for a second. Remember in the 80's? They were gonna take over the world. But their yen was around 200 -250 yen per dollar. It is kind of likes feet and meters. I might like saying I'm 6 foot 2. It isn't nearly as fun to say I'm 1.8 something meters tall. But in reality it means nothing.
It is the changes that you need to watch. Because that is what effects stuff.
Those two statements seem diametrically opposed to me. On one hand you're saying all that the relative value required was a revaluation of the currency, and on the other you're saying don't get hung up on that value because it's just a number.
On some level, the 2+2 argument can be applied. It depends though, on whether you consider economics to be a reductionist or relativistic science. Divisions of it can be either, but just like in physics, the limitations of a particular sub-discipline prevent it from being both as a whole. While both realities can, quite counter-intuitively, co-exist, they are not interchangeable.
There is a level of testability that makes it difficult to declare economics anything other than mathematical theory as well. The "scientific method" requires proof of theory that the science of economics cannot be made to demonstrate.
well that kind of depends if the individual or business is managing his debt properly. If the government would get out of the business of risk absorbsion. This would correct much more quickly than it currently does...
And much more violently.