China auto sales jump 78 percent in September

sickboy

sickboy

Active Member
Originally Posted by stdreb27
http:///forum/post/3162608
lol considering the very definition of Middle class would be middle, and if they went up, you'd be going to the upper class. I'd really like to see a study...
I'm not sure why that is funny. Isn't the whole idea of Capitalism that everyone ends up doing better as a whole? So, it is perfectly fine that while GDP increased drastically in this time period, only the upper class saw any increase in real income? There is no "trickling down" of wealth then..
I will look through some of my Labor Econ stuff tomorrow and see if I can find it.
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Originally Posted by sickboy
http:///forum/post/3162701
I'm not sure why that is funny. Isn't the whole idea of Capitalism that everyone ends up doing better as a whole? So, it is perfectly fine that while GDP increased drastically in this time period, only the upper class saw any increase in real income? There is no "trickling down" of wealth then..
I will look through some of my Labor Econ stuff tomorrow and see if I can find it.
No but seriously, think about it, you have all these people complaining about no real growth in the middle class wage rates or population. You get any serious growth, they'll move up a class. I think that is just a sexy number that doesn't mean all that much.
The number I'd really put some weight in is the amount of new millionairs. Or some sort of attempt as measuring growth from the middle class to the upper class. Or growth from the lower class to the middle class.
 
sickboy

sickboy

Active Member
True, or measuring downward mobility and overall numbers within the brackets. Or if there were a way to quantify standard of living.
 
darthtang aw

darthtang aw

Active Member
Originally Posted by sickboy
http:///forum/post/3162600
Yes, people did have jobs, but they were not good paying jobs, they were low paying service jobs. I will try to dig up the research I read that middle class real wages have been flat or slightly negative over the last 40 years and lower class real wages have significantly decreased. The quality of employment is as important as the quantity.
Actual the median income per family in the USA from 1945 till now has increased even when adjusted. What has changed is inflation and the devaluation of the dollar.
It isn't the jobs are gone, it is our trade deficit is higher than ever and our money won't go as far. Think about it. in 1980 you could by a middle of the road vehicle for just over 5 grand. Now, the middle of the road vehicle is 25,000. This is the problem.... But we could solve the trade deficit easily enough. Just drill and refine our oil/energy. That would place our trade deficit in the positive. Oil related imports are our trade deficit, which tells me we still make a lot of things....
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Originally Posted by sickboy
http:///forum/post/3162861
True, or measuring downward mobility and overall numbers within the brackets. Or if there were a way to quantify standard of living.
I've yet to see something good on that one way or the other. Other than a new millionairs stats. But the article I saw didn't include the study. Nor did it answer a few of the question's I had, that needed to be answered for it to have much meaning for how I wanted it to fit into a point I was making.
Originally Posted by Darthtang AW
http:///forum/post/3162883
Actual the median income per family in the USA from 1945 till now has increased even when adjusted. What has changed is inflation and the devaluation of the dollar.
It isn't the jobs are gone, it is our trade deficit is higher than ever and our money won't go as far. Think about it. in 1980 you could by a middle of the road vehicle for just over 5 grand. Now, the middle of the road vehicle is 25,000. This is the problem.... But we could solve the trade deficit easily enough. Just drill and refine our oil/energy. That would place our trade deficit in the positive. Oil related imports are our trade deficit, which tells me we still make a lot of things....
Darth, a trade deficit has absolutely nothing to do with prices, (all other things equal). Now prices might influence the trade deficit. As you can see with all these turkeys buying garbage from China.
As for money going as far. I'd disagree, importing goods typically is price driven (as a whole, I'm not talking stuff like speciality items). If items cost less, they'll price them cheaper.
 
darthtang aw

darthtang aw

Active Member
If we do not begin reducing our trade deficit, there will come a time when foreigners will become less willing to hold dollar denominated assets, (we are almost there now). This in turn will weaken the US dollar. Once this happens the we will be forced to increase interest rates (drastically most likely) to continue to attract foreign investments. Higher interest rates in turn will plunge the economy into an even worse recession than we are experiencing now. In short, given the size of the current account deficit it is believed that the US dollar has to plunge in a big way against most currencies (and we are seeing some of this now), and it is not possible to avoid a painful adjustment as a result of this.
Thus if our dollar value decreases, our current pay scale will not purchase as much or sustain us like before. Shrinking the middle class truly as those making 75,000 year will no longer be able to purchase thos e foreign made goods cheaply since the dollar ratio won't be the same....the prices will effectively go up with out the other country companies, raising their prices...due to a crappy dollar exchange rate.
Fix our trade deficit and you strengthen the country in more ways than just one.
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Originally Posted by Darthtang AW
http:///forum/post/3162928
If we do not begin reducing our trade deficit, there will come a time when foreigners will become less willing to hold dollar denominated assets, (we are almost there now). This in turn will weaken the US dollar. Once this happens the we will be forced to increase interest rates (drastically most likely) to continue to attract foreign investments. Higher interest rates in turn will plunge the economy into an even worse recession than we are experiencing now. In short, given the size of the current account deficit it is believed that the US dollar has to plunge in a big way against most currencies (and we are seeing some of this now), and it is not possible to avoid a painful adjustment as a result of this.
Thus if our dollar value decreases, our current pay scale will not purchase as much or sustain us like before. Shrinking the middle class truly as those making 75,000 year will no longer be able to purchase thos e foreign made goods cheaply since the dollar ratio won't be the same....the prices will effectively go up with out the other country companies, raising their prices...due to a crappy dollar exchange rate.
Fix our trade deficit and you strengthen the country in more ways than just one.
On the flip side to a devaluing dollar. It makes our exported goods cheaper, helping domestic manufacturing. Likewise foreign investments in US (other than our buying our debt)
You're trying to push the cart with the horse again. A trade deficit is going to have some effect on exchange rates. (in our case it is a little different because of dollarization) But what really drives exchange rates, is changes in the money supply.
 
sickboy

sickboy

Active Member
Originally Posted by stdreb27
http:///forum/post/3162979
On the flip side to a devaluing dollar. It makes our exported goods cheaper, helping domestic manufacturing. Likewise foreign investments in US (other than our buying our debt)
You're trying to push the cart with the horse again. A trade deficit is going to have some effect on exchange rates. (in our case it is a little different because of dollarization) But what really drives exchange rates, is changes in the money supply.
+1, you beat me too it....
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Originally Posted by sickboy
http:///forum/post/3163224
+1, you beat me too it....
I would like to clarify, slightly, the exchange rate is influenced by demand for currency, so if there was a high demand for currency to fund purchases from country X, it could indicate a strong trade surplus for country X.
I'm only referring to the USA and today's falling value of the dollar.
I don't think it is a result of a trade deficit as much as it is a reflection of actions by the fed to increase the money supply. (and yes this is something I've heard from Glen Beck) But I would not be the least surprised if their was some collusion to weaken the dollar, by expanding the money supply (hello cheap Federal Funds Rate) and other expansionary Federal Reserve Action. To make Federal borrowing cheaper...
But that is conspiracy theory...
I also think that you're just now finding an equilibrium between the new currency the Euro and the USD. This is a major challenger to the USD, since together, Euro based countries have a comparable economic force. And the reality is the US Dollar has never really had a viable alternative since the end of the Bretten Woods era. Ultimately, due to the history and cultures of the 2 organizations that control the money supplies. Unless a major shift occurs, we'll always have a more growth focused central banking policy while the European will have a more inflation (or lack of inflation) focused central banking policy.
So to me, I don't think the focus should be on worrying about trade deficit, or really a weak dollar. (it is salacious, and doesn't address the root issues with our current economic policy) I think we should be focusing on a monetary policy that promotes stability (low inflation) and let the markets take care of what is market equilibrium for trade, and the US Dollar. That mean drilling here, which would really help out trade deficit...
 
sickboy

sickboy

Active Member
You know, drilling at home has been brought a couple times in this thread, and sometimes I think we are purposely not drilling so that when the middle east runs out of oil, we rule the world....lol....
or just a bunch of tree huggers keep getting in the way...
 
sickboy

sickboy

Active Member
"China’s exchange rate regime can be blamed for exacerbating global imbalances which have undermined the value of the dollar. It is ironic then that China, along with other creditor nations, now has an interest in supporting the value of the dollar in order to avoid a sharp depreciation in the value of its assets."
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debat...ure-of-dollar/
Obviously commentary, but I thought it was fitting for this discussion.
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Originally Posted by sickboy
http:///forum/post/3163336
"China’s exchange rate regime can be blamed for exacerbating global imbalances which have undermined the value of the dollar. It is ironic then that China, along with other creditor nations, now has an interest in supporting the value of the dollar in order to avoid a sharp depreciation in the value of its assets."
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debat...ure-of-dollar/
Obviously commentary, but I thought it was fitting for this discussion.
The beautiful thing about international trade, and closely working with other countries is that it creates a great deterrent for war... China may do some stuff we don't agree with, but they will never ever do anything to start a full blow war... There is just too much for them to lose...
 
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