That whole Global Warming Thing is such a joke...

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nihoa

Guest
I can't believe I'm biting in another thread on this but anyway. What you wrote above makes zero sense because you are mixing up weather events and climate. An average increase in global temperature doesn't say anything about how wildly values fluctuate (deviate) around that average. If the average increase over time (climate) is a couple degrees it doesn't mean that individual measurements (daily weather) can only be that many degrees different. When you average out all those daily weather measurements you get a value that you can then compare to historical values. Look at the graph below of a normal distribution, the average is the centre line and is made up of values less than and more than itself. That's just how averages work. If the following year you get more events to either the left or right of the average, the average will shift in that direction. You can't make any inferences or conclusions based on a given day being hotter or colder by any amount.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mantisman51 http:///t/390237/that-whole-global-warming-thing-is-such-a-joke#post_3454543
Let's say, global warming is real, for the sake of discussion. Even the worst case scenarios they are talking about in 1.5°-2.5°F average. That would not account for days where we have 20° higher temps.
 
mantisman51

mantisman51

Active Member
"You can't make any inferences or conclusions based on a given day being hotter or colder by any amount." That's my point Nihoa. Thanks for making it more clear. Second, since weather and temperature have no correlation(I'm trying not to laugh out loud on that silly point made by every member of the global warming cult), we can discount 15 years of NO warming above average in Britain, right? Yup, everything that happens will always support junk science; so if it is warmer than normal, it is global warming. If it is cooler than normal, it is global warming...but wait, (I am really trying not to be completely disrespectful), temperature has nothing to do with "global warming", so what are we worked up over again? This is absolutely priceless! Since facts don't support any of the global warming nonsense, the theories and explanations get more complex and silly and become completely circular and far out.
 
N

nihoa

Guest
You've completely missed what I was saying. You can't make conclusions on the weather of a given day but you make conclusions about the patterns you seen in all the weather events over a year. How are weather and temperature NOT correlated? No idea where you go that. A rise or fall in average global temperature does have influences on weather events and, arguments against global warning aside, there is nothing radical about that. You are absolutely correct, if you understand a word I wrote above, that you cannot make conclusions globally based on what happens in Britain because Britain in only one small part of the global data set! If on average, by the very definition of what average means, global temperatures have risen by a couple degrees that means there will be local areas where the temperature has risen more than the average, places where you see no change, and places that could have even seen a cooling. None of the individual records matter, it's the pattern they suggest together. You have to look at the data set as a whole and you can't say anything about global patterns based on what happened at a give point in time (today is way hot) or in a given place (nothing happened in Britain). That's cherry picking data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mantisman51 http:///t/390237/that-whole-global-warming-thing-is-such-a-joke/20#post_3454849
"You can't make any inferences or conclusions based on a given day being hotter or colder by any amount." That's my point Nihoa. Thanks for making it more clear. Second, since weather and temperature have no correlation(I'm trying not to laugh out loud on that silly point made by every member of the global warming cult), we can discount 15 years of NO warming above average in Britain, right? Yup, everything that happens will always support junk science; so if it is warmer than normal, it is global warming. If it is cooler than normal, it is global warming...but wait, (I am really trying not to be completely disrespectful), temperature has nothing to do with "global warming", so what are we worked up over again? This is absolutely priceless! Since facts don't support any of the global warming nonsense, the theories and explanations get more complex and silly and become completely circular and far out.
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Well, statistically there is NO way over the span of 100 years of measurements that you could measure a 1-2 degree increase. Quite frankly it is within any statistical margin of error... Then you get into discrepancies of the data itself... Inability to produce the data the models were built on. Well it is doesn't look good for science...
 
N

nihoa

Guest
I don't know where you are getting that from. The only way that you can't have a statistically significant increase is if there is high variation around the means (average) you are comparing. Any mean has standard deviation in which 95% of the variation in measurements fall. If you say that one average is statistically different from another average you are saying that there is no overlap between the highest variation around the low average and the lowest variation around the high measurement. Which is to say that the standard deviations do not overlap. There is no way to say there is no way that couldn't happen without looking at the data set and what the variation is. So no, there isn't anything absolute about what you said making it a truth that it ist within any statistical margin of error.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stdreb27 http:///t/390237/that-whole-global-warming-thing-is-such-a-joke/20#post_3454863
Well, statistically there is NO way over the span of 100 years of measurements that you could measure a 1-2 degree increase. Quite frankly it is within any statistical margin of error... Then you get into discrepancies of the data itself... Inability to produce the data the models were built on. Well it is doesn't look good for science...
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nihoa http:///t/390237/that-whole-global-warming-thing-is-such-a-joke/20#post_3454934
I don't know where you are getting that from. The only way that you can't have a statistically significant increase is if there is high variation around the means (average) you are comparing. Any mean has standard deviation in which 95% of the variation in measurements fall. If you say that one average is statistically different from another average you are saying that there is no overlap between the highest variation around the low average and the lowest variation around the high measurement. Which is to say that the standard deviations do not overlap. There is no way to say there is no way that couldn't happen without looking at the data set and what the variation is. So no, there isn't anything absolute about what you said making it a truth that it ist within any statistical margin of error.
It is called math class... But you're playing into my point, we are making policy decisions on missing data sets...
 
mantisman51

mantisman51

Active Member
Tens of thousands of weather stations, many installed in the last 20 years and millions and millions of temperature and weather readings-so yeah, up to 5 degrees or thereabouts could and should fall into the range of error. But reason and logic have nothing to do with this-it isn't science. It is the religious belief that humans are killing Mother Earth and so the global warming hoaxers MUST be right! After all the emails outlining how the "scientists" lied and doctored data, after being shown NASA and NOAA's own websites showing the data has been changed more than 30 times(each time the changed data just happened to support the latest global warming scare tactics) and, finally, after SE Asia and Britain both show 10+ years of no warming(in Britain it's because of Solar cycles, in SE Asia it's because heavy pollution), if you still close your eyes and say, "I know it's real! I know it's real!", please have the decency to at least admit that you WANT it to be real and your faith allows you to hang on to that belief. Just quit pretending there's anything more than Algore's carbon credits for $ routine and a bunch of globalist lefties pushing their agenda. It's now past funny and just plain irritating.
 
bang guy

bang guy

Moderator
If someone currently believes that the Earth's atmosphere is warming doesn't mean they want it to be true. It's not religion. It's not anti-human. It may turn out to be wrong, I don't think it will. Doesn't make either of us stupid. I don't understand getting irritated because someone has a different opinion.
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bang Guy http:///t/390237/that-whole-global-warming-thing-is-such-a-joke/20#post_3455012
If someone currently believes that the Earth's atmosphere is warming doesn't mean they want it to be true. It's not religion. It's not anti-human. It may turn out to be wrong, I don't think it will. Doesn't make either of us stupid. I don't understand getting irritated because someone has a different opinion.
Difference of opinion is one thing. That difference of opinion is causing me 2 dollars a gallon in gas... Well, that is something to get irritated about...
 
N

nihoa

Guest
I'm not bothering. You jump to these vast conclusions that are nowhere rooted in reality. Somewhere in what you are saying might be an element of truth but by the time you exaggerate, make long reaching inferences, and bring it all back to this imaginary leftist agendas it's hardly work arguing about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mantisman51 http:///t/390237/that-whole-global-warming-thing-is-such-a-joke/20#post_3455010
Tens of thousands of weather stations, many installed in the last 20 years and millions and millions of temperature and weather readings-so yeah, up to 5 degrees or thereabouts could and should fall into the range of error. But reason and logic have nothing to do with this-it isn't science. It is the religious belief that humans are killing Mother Earth and so the global warming hoaxers MUST be right! After all the emails outlining how the "scientists" lied and doctored data, after being shown NASA and NOAA's own websites showing the data has been changed more than 30 times(each time the changed data just happened to support the latest global warming scare tactics) and, finally, after SE Asia and Britain both show 10+ years of no warming(in Britain it's because of Solar cycles, in SE Asia it's because heavy pollution), if you still close your eyes and say, "I know it's real! I know it's real!", please have the decency to at least admit that you WANT it to be real and your faith allows you to hang on to that belief. Just quit pretending there's anything more than Algore's carbon credits for $ routine and a bunch of globalist lefties pushing their agenda. It's now past funny and just plain irritating.
 
stdreb27

stdreb27

Active Member
2 stat classes huh? bahaha, you should probably get your money back. Look it goes like this. You make assumptions on temps based off growth of trees. More heat, longer growing season, more growth. No actual temperature data, just assumptions on tree growth directly correlated to temperature, with no real factoring in of other factors related to tree growth. Then you go through those sames cherry pick the ones that fit your desired results and use those in the model. (this did actually happen)
Or you can take samples of actual measurements from "official" weather stations. Because every one of those weather stations use the exact same thermometer. And every thermometer was tested using the exact same stringent quality standards. None of those thermometers were ever moved not did we change the method of gathering the data in those 100 years. Lets face it, Joe blow could look at one of those thermometers and say 100 degrees and then Jim blow could look at it and say 101 degrees. I've seen and witnessed modern weather NOAA approved weather readings... There is only the hope that weatherman 1900 was meticulous in his recordings and measurements. But then we take that data they recorded, and say without a shadow of a doubt that oh no, the world has warmed 2 degrees, now we're going to enact policies that cost trillions of dollars, triple the cost of gas. yes, that makes perfect sense.
So to put it in a nut shell. There is no way that 2 degrees is within any sort of margin of error. No matter how you cook the data. Even if you can assume that it fits within a 95% probability curve or 90% or whatever. Because well, the data cannot be verified as good...
 
beth

beth

Administrator
Staff member
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bang Guy http:///t/390237/that-whole-global-warming-thing-is-such-a-joke/20#post_3455012
If someone currently believes that the Earth's atmosphere is warming doesn't mean they want it to be true. It's not religion. It's not anti-human. It may turn out to be wrong, I don't think it will. Doesn't make either of us stupid. I don't understand getting irritated because someone has a different opinion.
And yet a few on this site consistently do get irritated if anyone dare try to crack the bubble they live in where everything gets back to partisan politics.
 
reefraff

reefraff

Active Member
The church of global warming is trying to use the issue to attack carbon based fuels. I've yet to have anyone make a case for CO2 levels increasing being directly responsible for warming. Our climate has had major changes in the past long before the advent of industrialization.
And all this chicken little crap draws attention away from the real issue which is high CO2 levels can change the PH of seawater. If we screw up the ocean we are a whole lot more hosed than if some stupid white bears die off of cities built at sea level get flooded.
 
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