Gilliland was also bold enough to admit that since stellar evolution theory predicts that the sun should increase in size with increasing age (i.e. the sun’s diameter should be increasing), any decrease is quite significant. To be sure, he said, the discrepancies between independent data sets—for example, a clear long-term decreasing trend in the Greenwich measurements reported by Eddy and Boornazian in 1979 and the lack of a trend in the Mercury transit data of Shapiro (1980)—makes simple interpretations problematic. But Gilliland maintained that in the partially justified, but perhaps overzealous criticism of the early Eddy and Boornazian claims there is the distinct possibility that much smaller but still fundamentally important long-term trends were being inadvertently disclaimed. He then noted, as we have already done above, that the equatorial trend derived from Mercury transits by Parkinson, Morrison and Stephenson over the interval 1723–1973 precisely agrees with the polar radius decrease of almost 0.2 second of arc per century over the interval 1715–1979 derived from observations of total solar eclipse path widths by Dunham et al.
Even more telling is the fact that even though Parkinson, Morrison and Stephenson argued that the horizontal Greenwich measurements were not reliable before 1854 or after 1915 because of instrumental and observational inadequacies, analyzing only the horizontal Greenwich data from 1854–1914 yields a long-term decrease trend of just over 0.3 second of arc per century. Thus Gilliland claimed that the objective result from the Parkinson, Morrison and Stephenson (1980) paper should have been that the Mercury transit data support a long-term radius decrease of over 0.1 second of arc per century and that the most reliable portions of the Greenwich observations support a somewhat steeper decrease.
To quote Gilliland:
‘Given the many problems with the data sets, one is not inexorably led to the conclusion that a negative secular (long-term) solar radius trend has existed since AD 1700, but the preponderance of current evidence indicates that such is likely to be the case.’
Furthermore, even
‘with allowance for possible systematic errors in both the meridian circle and Mercury transit timing observations, a negative secular (long-term) trend of solar radius is still supported.’
Steady long-term decrease
Thus we can conclude that a thorough analysis of all the available evidence clearly suggests a steady long-term decrease of the solar diameter (i.e. the sun is shrinking) at a rate of almost 0.2 second of arc (150 kilometers or 93 miles) per century or approximately 30 centimeters (less than one foot) per hour, superimposed upon a 76–80 year cycle of systematic increase and decrease over a range of 0.8 second of arc (600 km or 373 miles).