Originally Posted by
stdreb27
http:///forum/post/2768577
I don't see a deflationary period on the horizon. If anything, if dumping this much money into the markets, isn't followed by a massive contractionary polity by the fed. We are going to see some serious inflation. (by American standards) You can actually do some algebra and make the change in the money supply = inflation. (particularly seniorage) (where I'm coming from) and if you go back and look at history it is pretty dang close.
To be clear, in my line of thinking, if the Fed does not do this, then there will be deflation IMO. If the Fed does this, there will be inflation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
So in my mind it comes down to a choice of which is worse; inflation or deflation. I would contend that deflation is worse but JMO. You are already seeing it many markets; credit not easy to get (even for banks) LIBOR has doubled so any new int'l credit is at a premium and cash is being hoarded (check the latest on the 3 month treasury and other short term notes.) It is also evident in housing (obviously,) housing falls in value, people need to sell, can't sell so banks take over compounding the glut in supply. So they have a product that they can't sell or must sell at tremendous loss causing their own failures.
As interest rates rise as they very well may due to the increased perceived risk, the affordability of housing becomes problematic so deflating prices come down further, cash is hoarded people not wanting to invest long term, since prices are coming down - why buy today when it will be cheaper tomorrow? Thus furthering the downward spiral. This can/will affect other areas of the economy and those without significant cash savings will be affect the most, since this is much of America - problems occur and largely uncontrollable unless there is direct injections of capital into the economy to stimulate it. We got out of the great depression by huge injections of capital by the gov't public works programs and WWII - great injections of capital into the economy. If it happens again, the expenditures will be monumental.
See also the deflationary period in Japan in the '90s, many conditions which are remarkably similar to ours. With our present political climate though and it's associated pandering, I'm not so certain we will come out if it as well. If I thought our collective mindset would change, I'd be all for this to happen but I think it would take generations.
This is why government intervention in a market is such a serious problem. Because it is unsustainable. And eventually it has to go. And we get something like this bailout, or a big crash.
I agree to an extent, I just tend to believe that inflation is easier to control than deflation. The Fed is already out of bullets as far as monetary policy goes, suggestions? I would like less gov't intervention as a whole, however that is not going to happen with today's collective mindset. The aftermath I can see is public spending the likes of which we've never seen. If I could believe that this would not be the case and that we have "learned our lesson", I could actually welcome a depression. It would sting for some time but we'd be stronger in the end. The fact is though that I don't believe that to be the case in our present climate. Congress and politicians are completely unwilling to be fiscally responsible as it is, I have zero faith in them being responsible if the country were to fall into a depression. Their repeated refusal to pass a balanced budget amendment serves to strengthen my convictions (or lack thereof)
Your cross roads is understandable, I agree, in my head, I justify SOME regulation as needed protection just like we have police officers. The constitution says "promote general welfare" and I see that as providing a framework to allow us to reach for "the American dream" which including protection from the less scrupulous. That is why I'm not against organizations like the fed or some policing/ethical regulation. Likewise, our whole economy is based on trust, since our monetary system is fiat based, we did need some guarantee even if it is only on paper, to convince people to buy back into the system, after the 30's.
I think we are in agreement on this. The problem is that "we" feel we are entitled to the American dream rather than the opportunity to reach for it. And this sense of entitlement comes from the top down.
Let me clarify, No one was willing to pickup lehman at what the feds want to pay, so why not let lehman sink lower. And buy it at a lower price, they are sol anyway. Might as well pick it up cheaper if you can.
They did have some interest, but not at the price that the fed wants to pay. I don't remember who is was specifically.
IIRC the interest was from Barclay's but when it is better to liquidate through bankruptcy, it shows they could not get rid of it.